遥感与地球系统科学

地球作为一个高度复杂的非线性系统,各圈层(大气、海洋、陆地、生物、冰雪圈、固体地球)尤其是人类活动等任何组成成份的变化,都会引起地球系统的变化。人类可持续发展面临的巨大科学挑战之一是认识人类赖以生存的、复杂变化的地球系统,认识地球系统如何变化及主要驱动因素,认识地球系统未来变化趋势及如何提高对全球变化的适应能力。卫星独特的全球覆盖和日尺度的观测改变了地球科学的研究方法,它强调所能探测到的多时空尺度上的物理动力过程,在全球范围应对气候变化、能源和环境挑战具有重要作用,揭开了地球系统多学科交叉的新纪元。以地球系统的视野,抓住驱动地球系统的关键循环过程(如能量、水、生物化学循环),是当前地球系统科学的发展趋势。地球系统科学(全球变化)研究需要长期稳定、准确性较高的卫星观测数据,以水循环为例,卫星遥感具备获取全球范围水循环关键参数能力,但是系统性综合观测能力不足,整体精确性受到综合化的可靠空间数据集的限制。目前中国正在积极研制发展新型水循环卫星WCOM(Water Cycle Observation Misssion),并寄希望以此为核心传感器发起全球分布式水循环观测星座系统,进一步提高中国在国际水循环观测与地球系统科学研究方面的话语权与领先能力。     

Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

北京后沙峪凹陷的第四纪地层划分与构造演化

通过对北京平原北部昌平、顺义、朝阳等区域的多个深孔资料、尤其后沙峪地区G3钻孔资料的深入分析,并开展磁性地层学及孢粉测试成果研究,建立了钻孔的磁性地层序列,结合南口—孙河断裂、顺义断裂以及黄庄—高丽营断裂的活动性研究成果,确定了后沙峪凹陷的第四纪地层格架,分析了凹陷的构造演化过程。结果表明,后沙峪凹陷上G3孔下更新统底界为511.7 m,中更新统底界为175.5 m,上更新统底界为31.6 m。在燕山期晚期,黄庄—高丽营断裂形成,控制了北京凹陷的西部边界,在北东向顺义断裂和北西向南口—孙河断裂共同作用下形成后沙峪凹陷。进入第四纪后,G3钻孔地层在早、中、晚更新世的沉积速率分别为0.198 mm/a、0.255 mm/a和0.243 mm/a;各条断裂活动速率的差异性客观反映出各块体之间的升降特点。由于后沙峪凹陷处于黄庄—高丽营断裂的上盘,同时也是顺义断裂的下盘,因此,断裂间的相互运动在第四纪沉积作用下形成了后沙峪凹陷。     

SPOT5卫星影像在矿山环境调查中的应用

以吉林省辽源市煤炭矿山为研究对象,通过对SPOT5卫星影像纠正、融合、解译等处理,快速、便捷地查清矿区的地质环境问题:矿区固体废物堆放、尾矿库分布情况;矿山采空区地面塌陷、山体开裂、滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、岩溶塌陷、煤田自燃等地质灾害分布情况;由矿产开发引发的水土流失、土地沙化、侵占土地、植被破坏的情况;矿区水体、植被、土壤污染状况等。通过矿山地质环境调查实践,总结出了SPOT5卫星影像最优波段组合、融合方法及矿山地质环境调查中的地物判读标志,从而使SPOT5卫星影像在遥感环境地质调查中发挥了重要作用。     

新疆库车坳陷古近系膏泥岩层分层特征及沉积演化分析

库车坳陷古近系库姆格列木群下部的膏泥岩段存在明显的分层特征,根据岩性序列变化将其划分为5个亚段,自上而下依次为第1亚段(上泥岩段)、第2亚段(上化学岩段)、第3亚段(中泥岩段)、第4亚段(下化学岩段)、第5亚段(下泥岩段)。该岩性序列在克拉苏构造带不同部位发育程度不同,东部的克深-克拉地区发育第1~3亚段,仅西部DB303井附近发育完整的5个亚段。通过解剖各亚段内部岩性特征,明确其分布规律,并对库姆格列木群沉积初期的古地貌和沉积环境进行初步探讨,确立各亚段原始沉积演化序列和沉积模式。研究认为:(1)库姆格列木群沉积时期古地貌为东高西低,地貌幅度小;(2)膏泥岩段沉积序列呈碎屑岩-化学岩交替发育特征,受古地貌影响,不同地区发育的岩性序列旋回个数不同,但岩性序列变化规律相同。     

MALBAC技术扩增微生物群落基因组的效率评估

环境样品的低生物量是微生物宏基因组学研究面临的首要挑战,通过基因组扩增技术来满足高通量测序对DNA样品量的需求是最常用的解决策略。MALBAC(Multiple Annealing and Looping Based Amplification Cycles)基因组扩增试剂盒最初为扩增和研究哺乳动物的单细胞基因组而研发。本文中,我们通过人工构建的微生物群落来检测该试剂盒在微生物宏基因组扩增方面的效率和应用可行性。结果表明,每个标准反应中,10 pg的DNA模板量足以满足MALBAC试剂盒对样品扩增的需要。每个标准反应DNA模板用量为10和100 pg时,所扩增DNA样品的基因组覆盖度与原始未扩增样品表现出高度的一致性,证明MALBAC试剂盒扩增效果的高度稳定性和一致性。常用的GenomePlex全基因组扩增试剂盒使我们可以在每个标准反应DNA模板量为100 pg的条件下扩增获得足够的DNA样品,但是结果表明该参照试剂盒无法有效的实现对群落中低丰度细菌菌株基因组的线性扩增。对于MALBAC试剂盒和参照试剂盒而言,在扩增高GC含量的微生物物种基因组DNA方面效率低下。我们的实验结果表明MALBAC试剂盒在高效扩增环境样品宏基因组DNA方面的可行性,但对该试剂盒在扩增环境样品中高GC含量微生物物种方面的适用性存在疑虑。     

新疆东准乌须克劳格岩体LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄、Hf同位素特征及其地质意义

新疆东准噶尔琼河坝地区近年来找矿获得重大突破,发现了一系列重要的矿产,这些矿产基本上围绕该地区出露面积最大的乌须克劳格岩体分布。该岩体组成比较复杂,主要岩性为二长花岗岩和花岗闪长岩。采用LA-ICP-MS技术测得花岗闪长岩和二长花岗岩锆石~(206)Pb/~(238)U年龄分别为428.9±1.9Ma和427.2±1.7Ma,被解释为岩石的结晶年龄。2类岩石都属于过铝质-钙碱性系列花岗岩,具有较高的铝、钙含量,K_2O/Na_2O值普遍偏低,介于0.15~0.40之间;稀土元素配分曲线呈现右倾特征,稀土元素总量较低,轻稀土元素相对富集,负Eu异常不明显;在微量元素原始地幔标准化蛛网图上,高场强元素Th、Nb、Ta、P、Ti等相对亏损,大离子亲石元素Rb、Ba、U、K、Sr等相对富集,具有高Ba、Sr含量和高(La/Yb)_N、Sr/Y值,显示出高Ba-Sr花岗岩的特征;同时岩体具有高正ε_(Hf)(t)值和年轻的模式年龄。这些地球化学和同位素特征表明,晚志留世乌须克劳格岩体是大陆边缘弧环境下大洋板片熔融的产物。     

便携式高频地波雷达海流探测长周期工作性能试验

2013年1月29日至3月15日在台湾海峡西南部海域进行了OSMAR-S100便携式高频地波雷达与浮标观测海流数据的长周期对比试验,验证了雷达系统在探测海流方面的准确性、可靠性和稳定性.通过实测海流与雷达矢量流的复相关分析,选定3 m层的海流为对比代表层.试验期间实测流速为0.0~120.0 cm/s,雷达海流有效探测区内的矢量流流速、流向的观测误差较小,能够满足实时监测海洋表层流的需要,高精度区流速、流向的均方根误差分别为9.1 cm/s和24.8°,边缘区的均方根误差为13.3~24.8 cm/s和39.4°~39.6°,与国内外达到业务化运行要求的同类产品实际观测精度相当.     

南海南部陆缘地质流体类型及其油气成藏意义

南海南部陆缘蕴藏着非常丰富的油气资源。为了解南海南部陆缘流体活动系统以及与油气藏之间的关系,以高精度2D地震资料为基础,对南海南部陆缘流体活动系统的类型、地震反射特征、以及对油气成藏的意义开展了研究。在南海南部陆缘发现了多种流体活动系统,包括:泥底辟/泥火山、气烟囱、管状通道、与构造断层相关的流体活动系统。这些流体活动系统具有不同的地震反射特征,常常出现含气强振幅异常带、弱振幅杂乱反射带以及"下拉"或者"上拱"地震反射形态等流体活动系统的标志特征。流体活动系统受到构造运动和沉积因素的影响,并且与深部高温高压塑性流体密切相关,流体活动系统优先发育在地层薄弱部位。流体活动系统及所伴生的断裂和裂隙常常作为油气富集区的运输通道;并且流体活动系统所运移的强溶蚀性流体和深部热液流体有利于油气储层的形成,特别是对于碳酸盐岩储层的改造尤为明显。因此,流体活动系统不仅能作为油气运移通道,也可以改善储层,对油气成藏具有重要意义。     

上海地区第三硬土层间粉土夹层抽水沉降效应分析

现场对上海第三硬土层间粉土夹层即第⑩夹层承压含水层实施抽水试验,对水位、地表沉降及深层沉降进行观测,采用三维渗流及比奥固结理论模拟,分析了深层承压水抽水过程中的地层垂向变形与地下水水位变化之间的关系,为超深基坑地下水控制提供了依据。